States will determine Obamacare’s success

States will determine Obamacare’s success

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Is it Dec. 15, the last day consumers can enroll for coverage that begins on Jan. 1? Or March 31 when the enrollment period for buying insurance for 2014 closes?

In my mind, there is a different date that will have far more bearing on the number of people covered under the law. It’s June 28, 2012, the date the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on the act’s constitutionality.

What most people remember about the high court’s decision is that it upheld the core of the law: an individual mandate that requires practically everyone to buy health insurance or pay a penalty.
But the most consequential part of the ruling, which got less attention at the time, gave states discretion over whether to expand their Medicaid programs for the poor.

The law originally called for each state to expand Medicaid to people making less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level (now $15,856 for a household of one or $32,499 for a household of four). But the court said states could refuse to go along and not risk losing the federal government’s contribution to their Medicaid programs.

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Nixon proposed today’s Affordable Care Act

Nixon proposed today’s Affordable Care Act

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Not surprisingly, private health insurers cheered on the Republicans while doing whatever they could to block Democrats from creating a public insurance system.

In February 1974, Republican President Richard Nixon proposed, in essence, today’s Affordable Care Act. Under Nixon’s plan all but the smallest employers would provide insurance to their workers or pay a penalty, an expanded Medicaid-type program would insure the poor, and subsidies would be provided to low-income individuals and small employers. Sound familiar?

Private insurers were delighted with the Nixon plan but Democrats preferred a system based on Social Security and Medicare, and the two sides failed to agree.

Thirty years later a Republican governor, Mitt Romney, made Nixon’s plan the law in Massachusetts. Private insurers couldn’t have been happier although many Democrats in the state had hoped for a public system.
When today’s Republicans rage against the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, it’s useful to recall this was their idea as well.

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