All the pundits are wrong

All the pundits are wrong

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snip


There’s a new, two-part conventional wisdom going around: Democrats have a White House lock, while Republicans are sure to keep their majority in the House of Representatives until at least the next census and redistricting. Ignore it.

It’s certainly possible that the status quo will prevail in both the House and the Oval Office … and in 2014, in particular, it’s highly unlikely that Nancy Pelosi will win the speakership back.

But the idea that Democrats are locked out of the House until 2022 at the earliest is silly. And the idea that demographics and a poor image prevent Republicans from winning the presidency under current conditions is even sillier.

Indeed, it reminds me very much of the political climate in 1989-1990, when “everyone” was convinced that Republicans had an Electoral College lock on the presidency and that Democrats would never lose the House. That lasted all the way until the next recession, which elected Bill Clinton, and in turn produced the Republican landslide of 1994. So much for sure things – and odds are, the same is true this time.
I’ll start with the House. It is true that Republicans right now have a built-in advantage in House elections. It’s built on two things: The way people cluster into districts seems to produce more (somewhat) Republican districts and fewer (more solidly) Democratic districts. There’s some dispute about it, but generally analysts find that this advantage derives from natural distribution, not from deliberate gerrymandering. It’s also built on an old reliable in House elections, the incumbent advantage – an edge that helped Democrats keep their forever majority from the 1950s until that 1994 election. So the advantage is real.

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 some of this negative attitude comes from dems themselves.  excuse not to do some hard work winning back congress and state houses====my opinion based on talking with some dems